Domestic cotton prices have fallen all the way, Xinjiang cotton companies will not cash in on the market

At present, the textile industry has entered the traditional low season for consumption. However, the positive growth rate of textile and apparel exports in May and the gradual increase of national cotton collection and storage in the new year all give the market a warmer expectation. It is expected that the cotton price in the future will continue its weak upward trend.

Cotton supply and demand continued loose pattern According to the latest USDA data, global cotton production in 2011/2012 increased by 1.445 million tons from the previous year to 26.789 million tons, while consumption contracted by 1.738 million tons to 23.18 million tons. The increase in output and reduction in consumption caused the global cotton supply surplus of 3.604 million tons this year, creating a record high in the past 16 years. In 2012/2013, global cotton will still be surplus, amounting to 1.465 million tons.

In China, USDA data show that this year China's cotton supply will have a surplus of 3.429 million tons. If China counts 3.13 million tons of cotton, the supply and demand of China's cotton will be basically balanced this year. However, the high level of national cotton reserve stocks can not be ignored in later suppression of cotton prices. In the new year, China’s cotton production, consumption, and imports have all been reduced to varying degrees, of which output has dropped to 6.641 million tons, consumption has shrunk to 8.709 million tons, and imports have been significantly reduced to 2.939 million tons. Taken together, China's cotton supply in the new year is still over 871,000 tons.

Downstream textile situation is still severe Since 2012, in the more complex macroeconomic environment, China's textile industry has shown the characteristics of domestic sales growth rate and export pressure. According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to May, the retail sales of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, which was 7.3% lower than the same period of last year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate of retail sales was only 12.3%, 10.2% less than the previous month. Percentage. In terms of exports, from January to May, China exported a total of US$90.642 billion worth of textiles and clothing, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.06% and a decrease of 24.47 percentage points from the previous quarter. Excluding price increase factors, the textile industry's exports showed a negative growth. It can be seen that the current situation of the downstream cotton market is still severe.

Textile export data showed signs of improvement in May textile and garment export data showed a year-on-year growth rate of negative growth in the previous period, showing positive growth, showing that China's textile and apparel exports have shown signs of improvement. Of course, data for only one month is hard to explain the problem in essence, and further observation is needed.

The New Year's National Savings and Storage Policy Boosts the Market At present, the State has not issued specific detailed rules for the storage of cotton for the next fiscal year. However, at the Chengdu Cotton Conference on May 17th, the Director of National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Xianbin spoke in response to the question: Do not question the state’s policy of purchasing and stockpiling. In the next year, the country will continue to open and close reserves unchanged; do not worry about the issue of storage capacity, the state has enough The storage capacity accommodates the newly purchased cotton. We believe that under the support of the policy of purchasing and storage in the next fiscal year, cotton prices will not fall as deep as in 2008.

In summary, the author believes that the start-up situation of downstream cotton consumption and the pace of national policy regulation and control are still the key factors leading the cotton trend. With the end of the current cotton year, the support for the national policy on cotton collection and storage in the new year has become increasingly apparent, coupled with the consumption of cotton stocks in the market, it is expected that the cotton supply will be tight in mid-August. Therefore, as a whole, the price of cotton in the late period may maintain a pattern of upward oscillation.

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